Tourism operators don't expect the trans-Tasman bubble will be a silver bullet to solve their woes, but some believe it will help. 

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced this afternoon that quarantine-free travel will open between New Zealand and Australia in a fortnight, on Monday, April 19. 

It's the first time international travel has been allowed through NZ's borders without restrictions since last March.

Cruise Milford boss Peter Egerton says those 12 months have been "horrible" for the communities in the lower South Island. 

He's optimistic about the bubble. 

"It's absolutely essential," he says, " a godsend.  

"It will make the difference of being able to get through the winter. It's not going to be the be-all and end-all, but it's going to have a very positive impact."

Egerton, whose company operates two craft in Milford, says he's not overly concerned about losing the domestic market to Australia. 

"We've been living off the domestic market for 12 months and that's not sustainable. Generally people go to Milford once, very seldom twice. 

"So any losses will be more than off-set by the Australian market. Over the winter, as much as 70% of our customers are from the Australian market. 

"The Australians travel for skiing and then go on to do other activities." 

Prior to Covid-19, Australians made up almost 40% of international arrivals to New Zealand and contributed around 24% or $2.7 billion of New Zealand's annual international visitor spend.

Tourism New Zealand interim chief executive René de Monchy says modelling shows that "while visitor numbers aren’t anticipated to return to previous levels overnight we can expect to be back at 80% by January 2022". 

The bubble could bring in $1 billion to the economy by the end of the year, although the first people expected to travel are those wanting to reconnect with friends and family, rather than pure tourists. 

Businesses throughout Southland have been surviving on less than 20% of their usual patronage. 

Southland mayor Gary Tong says the announcement is "fantastic news" for them, especially before the ski season. 

"The Australians that are coming to ski will have a look around Milford, Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, places that are certainly under the pump at the moment and in need of visitors. 

"It's been very very hard in the region, a lot of people struggling." 

He expects staffing to be a challenge, with many workers having moved on to other jobs and parts of the country. 

Training new staff will take more than two weeks, but at least businesses will have a little time to prepare, he says. 

Stephen England Hall CEO Wayfare, which owns and operates Real Journeys, Go Orange, Cardrona, Treble Cone & The International Antarctic Centre, agrees. 

Scaling up operations to meet demand will be a "challenge", he says, but believes the bubble will have "a hugely positive impact on our businesses and the communities we operate in". 

Graham Budd, chief executive of Great South, Southland Regional Development Agency and the Regional Tourism Organisation, speaking before the announcement, says: "The main thing is that there is a specific date announced and clear conditions of travel so that businesses can start taking bookings and gear up to welcome visitors. 

"The actual date is probably less important than the certainty but by the end of April will be very welcome particularly for Te Anau/ Fiordland businesses and community and the rest of the region too." 

Many of the tourists who come south will arrive at Queenstown Airport, which expects initially expects about 40 flights (arrivals and departures) between Australia and Queenstown per week.  

Direct scheduled services will be operated by Air New Zealand and Qantas between Queenstown and Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to start. 

Then, within the coming weeks Jetstar and Virgin Australia are expected to confirm the recommencement dates for their services, including the Queenstown to Gold Coast route.

Economist Benjie Patterson sounds a note of caution, however. 

He says under an example scenario where Australian tourism into NZ recovers to 60% of its usual level and 60% of the extra domestic spend from last winter heads overseas, smaller towns could lose out. 

"Most of New Zealand’s visitor attractions are not meccas for Australian tourism over the colder months, and instead could lose in net terms as kiwis head across the ditch. The upshot is that the government is still likely to need to open its wallet and support people in these struggling tourism communities until the busier summer months approach.

"But there is still one thing that could flip this result on its head, and that is if visitor behaviour dramatically changes."

And Matt Wong, who recently bought Queenstown business iFLY Indoor Skydiving NZ, isn't even too optimistic about the benefits for Queenstown.

He says the timing and potential disruption to travel plans should there be an Covid-19 outbreak means the tourist tap won't be turned back on immediately.  

"The reality is, it's going to be a lot of friends and family. The PM was very much saying 'buyer beware', so I think we're going to see a slow start. 

"We've missed the Australian school holidays anyway, because they're on now, and then just as the Kiwi holidays come on, they could potentially all go off to Australia, although I don't think they will. 

"So the timing is not perfect at all." 

Wong says the focus for many Queenstown businesses will be the winter season, once everyone has seen how the bubble will operate and travellers hopefully have more confidence. 

"Unfortunately it does mean another three months of holding your breath a little. There'll be dribbles of Australians coming in.

"But it's good that it's happening, a good direction for the economy to start the revival process."

He's also disappointed the Government is not looking at bubbles with other safe countries, while another concern is a Pacific islands bubble which could dent the domestic market. 

"Auckland market, which is about 40% of our market for domestic, could go to the Pacific islands."