Forty-eight new confirmed and 10 probable cases of COVID-19 were reported today but Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield cautioned the apparent dip in new cases was not a sign that the situation was taking a turn for the better.

“Whilst this is a drop in the number over the last day or two, I have no sense that this is a drop overall, and our expectation is that the number of cases will continue to increase. The number of cases may reflect that there were lower numbers of tests done on Sunday, in particular, and that’s what we’re seeing come through,” he said.

“Our full expectation is that the number of cases will continue to increase over the coming seven to 10 days. Then our hope is that they would start to decline, particularly if people keen doing as asked of them and maintaining social distancing and isolation.”

In all, there are currently 647 confirmed and probable cases in New Zealand. Seventy-four people have already recovered from COVID-19 infection.

Dr Bloomfield also today released modelling that he said painted a “sobering picture” of what the impact of COVID-19 would be on New Zealand if we were not taking a very decisive and strict approach to our response.

“Without the actions currently being taken, the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 would clearly exact a high price on New Zealand in terms of its impact on our healthcare system, on our healthcare workers and, of course, in a large number of deaths,” he said.

“We need to take this virus seriously and part of taking it seriously is now ensuring we get the best possible outcome from the Alert Level 4 measures we have in place. That, of course, requires – and I can’t say it enough – it requires everybody to play their part and observe the self-isolation rules that are in place and to avoid social contact. That is how we will collectively break the chain.”

The virus impact modelling released by Ministry of Health today can be viewed HERE.

View the full briefing below.