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Polls suggest tight race for mayors

The Southland App

Paul Taylor

27 September 2022, 11:39 PM

Polls suggest tight race for mayorsMayoral chains up for grabs. Stock photo.

Straw polls by the Southland App suggests there are some neck-and-neck races for the region's three mayoral chains.


Southlanders have until noon on October 8 to vote for mayors, councillors and community board members in Invercargill City, Southland District and Gore District.


And it could go down to the wire, if the responses to our quick-fire polls, conducted through independent survey software last week, are anything to go by.



In Invercargill, the survey results showed incumbent deputy mayor Nobby Clark is leading the race to succeed Sir Tim Shadbolt.


Clark received 42 of the 139 votes cast, that's 30.22%. Former Invercargill deputy mayor Toni Biddle is close behind, however, with 34 votes, or 24.46%.


And broadcaster Marcus Lush is also running well in third, amassing 24 votes, or 17.27% or the total.



But Sir Tim, New Zealand's longest-serving current mayor with close to 27 years in the seat, is languishing in fourth, with 17 votes, or 12.23% of the total.


Sir Tim, now 75, was given a round of applause by eight supporters yesterday as he chaired what could be his final Invercargill council meeting as mayor, reported Stuff.



He believes he is a long-shot to retain the mayoralty, after a good deal of conflict and controversy in his latest term.


Voter turnout in Invercargill City in the 2019 local government elections was 53.7%, or 20,647 people.



In Southland District, Kirsty Pickett* is leading by a whisker from Rob Scott.


Pickett received 26 of the 75 votes cast, or 34.67% of the total, with Scott on 23 votes, or 30.67%.


Geoffrey Young takes the third spot in the poll, with 14 of the votes, or 18.67%, while, like Sir Tim, incumbent mayor Gary Tony is fourth in the placings, with 8 votes, or 10.67% of the total.


Voter turnout in Southland District in the 2019 local government elections was 47.3%, or 9,428 people.



And finally, hopefully more voters will turnout in Gore District than have responded to our poll.


Southland App got just 27 responses from the Southland hub, which has a population of 12,000 but about 9,000 enrolled electors. In 2019, there was a 47.5% turnout, or 6,730 people voting.


For what it's worth, incumbent mayor Tracy Hicks leads the two-horse race, according to the survey, against his young rival Ben Bell.


Hicks, 70, received 14 votes in the poll, or 51.85%, while Bell received just one less, 13, which breaks down to 48.15% of the total.



The surveys were conducted using online survey software QuestionPro, which uses IP address magic to ensure people responding can't make their selection multiple times.


Click on the links below to read what mayoral candidates across the three candidates think about the big issues. We're publishing a weekly Q&A each Friday, in the run up to the elections.


* Disclaimer: Kirsty Pickett is a co-owner of The Southland App, but the publication has editorial independence and will treat all candidates equally.




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