Modelling shows that the Southern District Health Board (DHB) is likely to see 18,247 positive cases of Covid-19 during 2022, with 660 of these cases requiring hospital admission and 13 requiring intensive care.

In a report prepared for tomorrow's board meeting (Wednesday, 2nd February) Chris Fleming, Chief Executive of Southern DBH, says more than 70% of cases are expected in March and April, which will put significant pressure on health care providers throughout the region. 

“Over the last six weeks our focus has changed in terms of planning from the approach taken for Delta to the approach required for Omicron,” his report to the board says.

“Omicron is far more transmissible… which means for every positive case they are transmitting this to 10 or more people, and the incubation period has dramatically reduced. This means that if there are 10 cases in our community after 14 days this would have increased to 1,000 and after 19 days 5,000 cases,” he says. 

“The good news however is that the severity is far less than previous strains. Ultimately, for Southern [DHB] this means that the number of cases requiring care in the intensive care unit (ICU) is no longer the main concern.”

Source: SDHB board agenda

The report predicts that between 20 to 30% of the workforce may be out of action at the peak of infections, some with Covid, but the majority being required to isolate due to being close contacts, or needing to support their family in the event of education closures etc. 

This is expected to place considerable pressure on the health system, as well as other related areas such as supply chain. 

Southern DHB is recruiting several new staff to help deal with the upcoming influx of cases, including a Medical Officer special scale, a Registrar, Registered Nurses, administration officers, Health Care Assistants, a Clinical Nurse Specialist, communications advisor, and Māori and Pacifica Connectors.

Fleming says more staff availability will enable existing staff to take some leave which is needed as the cumulative impact of the response has left many staff exhausted.

Southern DHB has delivered Covid-19 vaccinations at a rate above the national average. 

Both booster vaccinations and the AstraZeneca vaccine were introduced in November, and the DHB reached 90% double vaccinated for the general population and 90% first doses for the Māori population. 

For the period ending 31 December 2021 Southern reached a 96% vaccination rate for first doses and 94% for second doses, with 43,000 boosters and an overall total of 580,000 vaccinations delivered.