Next year - 2026 - could be the year that the kākāpō breeding programme takes such a big leap forward that conservationists can finally take a step back

Kākāpō numbers are so thin that all 327 of them have a name and a transmitter.

The funny little tree-climbing, owl-like parrot has had intensive management over the last several decades, and its numbers have come back from the brink to give conservationists hope.

And after a four year wait, they're preparing for what could be the biggest boom in kākāpō chicks yet, because next year is a mast year.

That means rimu trees on the predator-free islands where the birds live are about to burst with seeds, the bumper year that kākāpō wait for.

"You have to wait around to get a good thing from kākāpō, but this year all the stars are in alignment," says Alison Ballance, who will be continuing her Kākāpō Files podcast series from December 16.

It will also mark the first time that conservationists take a step back from such intensive methods of rescuing the critically endangered population.

Those methods are resource-heavy and not sustainable. So instead of incubating every egg, encouraging the females to lay more than one clutch, and providing supplementary feed, attention is turning to making sure the birds have enough room to spread their wings.

The ultimate prize would be to turn Stewart Island/Rakiura into a pest-free haven.

"That's why we're looking with great interest at the Predator Free Rakiura programme," says Ballance, "where the community down there alongside DoC, and Zero Invasive Predators and Ngāi Tahu are starting to begin a programme where [they're asking] can they get rid of things like feral cats and rats on Stewart Island.

"And if that was the case, then we could move kākāpō back to Rakiura and just stand back and let them be kākāpō in their own time frame, without the risk of predation."

Conservationists know that the risk of taking their eye off every egg and chick means they may lose more than they have in the past.

They say while it's nerve-wracking, it's essential. There will be fewer chick checks this season, more eggs hatching in nests rather than in incubators, and generally a move towards minimal intervention.

The last mast years were in 2019 and 2022, so the big crop of chicks that arrived in 2019 will now be ready to breed. The females start from age five but it's possible some four-year-olds may also lay eggs.

"There should be lots of new, young female kākāpō trying to breed this year which will be really exciting. The Department of Conservation's kākāpō recovery team tell me there's a bit of a wild card. There's 24 young females who are four years old and basically they [DoC] haven't had experience in the last 30 years of intensive kākāpō management of a breeding season that was four years apart.

"So they're wondering ... maybe some of those precocious four-year-olds ... will they breed?"

Thirty years ago there were 51 known kākāpō; 21 female and 30 male. Now we've got 84 females of breeding age, so that's about a 400 percent increase in potential chicks.

Kākāpō are a long-lived species, although we don't know exactly how long-lived. There are definitely some birds in their late 40s and early 50s and there's speculation they could live up to 80 or even 100 - and they keep laying until the end.

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